The current price of tungsten metal is one of the most extreme price moves in industrial metals right now.
Why have tungsten prices increased in 2025 & 2026?
Tungsten prices have surged sharply since early 2025, and the move is structural rather than cyclical, driven by a combination of supply constraints, geopolitical factors, and strong demand.
The structural supply deficit we are facing is not just temporary. Years of underinvestment in new mines, environmental restrictions & low inventories entering 2025 have created what analysts describe as a “tungsten crunch” with ongoing deficits expected.
Here’s a breakdown of why prices have risen and how the trend looks going forward.
- Severe supply constraints (the biggest driver)
- China dominates supply (~70% to 80% of global production) and has:
- Imposed export controls and quotas starting in 2025
- Export restrictions on “dual-use” materials
- Reduced mining quotas (approx. reduction of 6.5% Year over Year)
- Cut export volumes significantly (approx. 40% drop in exports)
- Ore quality is declining and extraction costs are rising, limiting new output.
- Imposed export controls and quotas starting in 2025
- China dominates supply (~70% to 80% of global production) and has:
- Surging defense demand;
- Tungsten is critical for:
- Armor-piercing ammunition
- missiles, aerospace components, and turbine parts
- Ongoing conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East) have sharply increased demand.
- Stockpile drawdowns are tightening supply further.
- Tungsten is critical for:
Result: Global supply has tightened dramatically, non-China supply is not sufficient to meet global demand, and down-stream producer mills cannot scale-up production quickly.
Reports indicate record or multi-decade-high prices can be expected in 2026 and beyond due to;
- Broader industrial demand growth
- Tungsten demand is rising across aerospace, defense, semiconductor and electronics manufacturing.
- Energy and oil drilling (tools, drill bits)
These sectors rely on tungsten’s extreme hardness and heat resistance, making substitution difficult. This has turned tungsten into a strategic/critical mineral, amplifying price volatility.
How prices have trended
- 2025 – Prices began rising steadily due to tightening supply.
- Concentrates up ~25% early in the year. By late 2025, prices had surged ~150% in some segments.
- YTD 2026 – Prices hit record highs globally (APT ~$1,100+/MTU) with reports of 50%+ spikes in short periods.
Market conditions as of May 1, 2026;
- Prices are highly volatile and still trending upward
- Persistent tightness in APT, concentrates & downstream tungsten metal products
Short Term Outlook (2026 – 2027) – Tight, elevated market for the foreseeable future.
- Prices likely remain elevated and volatile.
- Continued upward pressure from:
- geopolitical tensions
- defense demand
- constrained exports
- Tight supply, surging demand & geopolitical issues = sustained high prices
2024 – 2026 Price Trend;
Year Approx. refined tungsten price Change
2024 ~$40/kg to $60/kg Baseline
2025 (avg) ~$100/kg to $200/kg Prices doubled to tripled over 2024
2026 (current) ~$280/kg to $330/kg Additional 50% to 150% over 2025
Total Price Moves 2024 – YTD 2026: ~4x to 6x price increases depending on product form.
Bottom line: This is one of the most aggressive minor metal rallies in decades and unlike typical cycles, it’s being driven by structural supply constraints and geopolitics, not just demand spikes.
Market prices are predicted to stabilize in Q3 2026 and we might even see some minor price pullbacks from peak levels. However, given the driving forces behind the recent price increases, high tungsten prices are here to stay for the foreseeable future.